The U.S. economy is navigating a tricky balancing act between slowing growth and stubborn inflation. Service-sector activity cooled slightly in October while inflation remained elevated above 3%, creating uncertainty about whether the economy is sustainably cooling or simply shifting into a weaker state. This inflation persistence is rippling through multiple asset classes: gold prices are rebounding as investors hedge against inflation risk, though the rally remains fragile ahead of Friday's jobs report, which could signal whether the labor market is still tight enough to support higher prices. Meanwhile, certain stocks with strong pricing power, large consumer companies that can raise prices and keep selling, are outperforming as investors seek dividends that won't be eroded by inflation. Looking ahead, a Federal Reserve research paper warns that the El Niño weather pattern poses a meaningful inflation risk for 2027, potentially creating upward pressure on prices even as employment may grow. The Treasury is also adjusting its bond-sales strategy, signaling the government is preparing markets for potentially significant shifts in borrowing and interest rates. Together, these developments suggest investors are bracing for inflation to remain sticky while economic growth moderates.
Daily Digest ·
The U.S.
What moved Wall Street and the PSEi, and what it means for your money, in plain language.
Today, in Two Lines
The day’s biggest story in each market.
The U.S. economy is navigating a tricky balancing act between slowing growth and stubborn inflation.
The Philippine economic picture on November 4, 2026, remains unsettled as inflation pressures force the central bank to hold firm on rate increases.
US & PH Markets at Last Close
Where each market finished its most recent trading session before this issue went out.
US markets
| S&P 500 | 7,688.62 +1.58% |
| Dow Jones | 53,356.12 +3.03% |
| Nasdaq | 25,736.51 +1.44% |
| 10-Yr Treasury Yield | 4.89% |
Philippine markets
| PSEi | 5,694.92 +1.26% |
| USD/PHP | 63.09 -0.43% |
| BSP Rate | 5.50% |
Winners & Losers
The stocks that moved most, and why.
USUnited States
- PARA Parabolic Technologies+153.2%
Strong intraday trading performance in technology sector
- HUBC Hub Cyber Security+40.6%
Significant gains during Tuesday's regular trading session
- IPW iPower+15.8%
Strong after-market session performance in industrials
- CRWV CoreWeave Inc.-8.6%
Insider selling triggered significant stock price decline
- NB NioCorp Developments+3.7%
Materials sector gains in Tuesday after-market trading
PHPhilippines
- BPI Bank of the Philippine Islands+7.93%
- URC Universal Robina Corp.+4.91%
- MBT Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co.+4.39%
- DPLB DigiPlus Interactive Corp.-7.29%
- DMCI DMCI Holdings Inc.-3.06%
Today’s Full Story
USUnited States
PHPhilippines
The Philippine economic picture on November 4, 2026, remains unsettled as inflation pressures force the central bank to hold firm on rate increases. The PSEi recovered 1.26%, climbing to 5,694.92, as investors returned to buy shares following the prior session's decline and amid positive sentiment from U.S. election results, a sign that foreign buyers saw value in Philippine equities after the selloff. However, this rebound masks deeper concerns. BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. signaled the central bank is still in "tightening mode" and shows no intention of cutting rates soon, as inflation remains elevated (a fact confirmed days later when October data came in at 7.8%, far outpacing the 2-4% target). The peso weakened to P63.535 per dollar, reflecting ongoing currency pressure from global uncertainties and domestic inflation concerns. With fuel and electricity costs rising, economists warn inflation could peak in November, potentially breaching 8%, while weak manufacturing output suggests the economy is cooling, a difficult backdrop where inflation stays high even as growth slows. This dynamic leaves the BSP in a bind: continued rate increases necessary to fight inflation, yet these same hikes may slow already-fragile growth further.
US–PHHow US news affects the Philippines
On November 4, US election results shifted global sentiment briefly, with Filipino stock investors returning to buy bargains despite persistent underlying weaknesses. The PSEi recovered 1.26 percent midweek, though the peso weakened to P63.535 against the dollar as inflation concerns and elevated US Treasury yields, which stood near 5 percent on Fed hike bets, continued pressuring the local currency. The US Federal Reserve has signaled roughly a 74–81 percent probability of another rate hike by December, keeping borrowing costs high across emerging markets including the Philippines. For Philippine-US trade, Ambassador Lee Lipton (November 3) called for deeper economic ties to match their defense alliance, but no new tariff concessions or trade breakthroughs were announced, the Philippines remains focused on reducing the 12.5 percent Section 301 forced-labor tariff imposed since July 2026. Financial stocks led the PSEi rally, suggesting hope around improving domestic credit conditions; however, near-term risks remain skewed toward peso weakness, given the country's sensitivity to elevated oil prices and the BSP's signal that rate cuts are still distant as inflation battles continue. Uncertainty worth watching: whether the Fed's expected December rate hike will trigger another wave of capital outflows and peso depreciation, constraining the import-dependent energy sector.
Sa Taglish
Kaya noong November 4, ang US election results ay nag-shift ng sentiment sa buong mundo, tapos ang mga Filipino stock investors naman ay bumalik na bumili ng bargains kahit may persistent weaknesses pa rin. Nag-recover ang PSEi ng 1.26 percent sa gitna ng linggo, pero nag-weaken ang peso to P63.535 against the dollar dahil sa inflation concerns at elevated US Treasury yields na umabot na malapit sa 5 percent dahil sa Fed hike bets. Ang US Federal Reserve basically ay nag-signal na may around 74 to 81 percent probability ng another rate hike by December, kaya ang borrowing costs ay tumaas pa sa lahat ng emerging markets including Philippines. Para sa Philippine-US trade, si Ambassador Lee Lipton noong November 3 ay nag-call for deeper economic ties para ma-match nila ang defense alliance nila, pero walang new tariff concessions o trade breakthroughs na na-announce. Ang Philippines pa rin ay focused sa pag-reduce ng 12.5 percent Section 301 forced-labor tariff na imposed since July 2026. Financial stocks ang nag-lead sa PSEi rally, so may hope daw around improving domestic credit conditions, pero honestly ang near-term risks ay tilted pa rin toward peso weakness dahil sa country's sensitivity sa elevated oil prices at dahil ang BSP ay nag-signal na ang rate cuts ay malayo pa habang patuloy ang inflation battle. Ang worth watching talaga ay kung ang expected December rate hike ng Fed ay mag-trigger ng another wave ng capital outflows at peso depreciation, kasi yan ay mag-constrain sa import-dependent energy sector natin.
USD/PHP
Biggest mover: Dow Jones +3.03%
What to Watch
- Friday's US jobs report will be critical, a strong labor market could reinforce Fed rate-hike bets and pressure emerging market currencies including the peso.
- El Niño weather pattern poses 2027 inflation risk for the US; monitor Fed communications on how this long-term threat influences near-term policy decisions.
- BSP remains in tightening mode with rate cuts unlikely near-term; watch November inflation data (likely peaking above 8%) for signals on policy persistence and currency pressure.
- December Fed rate hike probability at 74-81% could trigger capital outflows from emerging markets; track peso weakness and its impact on Philippine energy and import sectors.
Sources
The original reporting behind this issue.
US markets
- Gold Rebounds, but I Remain Wary Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
Gold rebounds on Wednesday, but rising real yields and persistent inflation leave the rally vulnerable to renewed selling ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
- US services sector activity cools slightly in October; inflation remains elevated
- Inflation Is Running Above 3%. These 3 Dividend Stocks Have the Pricing Power to Keep Up.
When inflation eats into your dividend's buying power, pricing power becomes the one trait separating stocks that keep up from those that quietly fall behind. Three consumer giants are charging more and still selling more, and the gap between them matters more than most investors realize.
- El Nino Poses 'Meaningful Risk' of Higher Inflation in 2027, SF Fed Paper Says
The El Nino weather pattern that could cause a record rise in ocean temperatures in coming months poses a “meaningful risk” of higher U.S. inflation in 2027 even as it also will likely add to employment, according to research published …
- Treasury Preps Wall Street For Changes to Bond Sales
PH markets
- PSEi rebounds as US election results lift sentiment
The Philippine Stock Exchange index recovered 1.26 percent to 5,694.92 on Wednesday, with investors returning to buy shares after the previous session's decline, while the peso weakened slightly.
- BSP chief: We're still in tightening phase
BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. said the central bank remains in monetary tightening mode and is not considering rate cuts yet as elevated inflation is expected to persist in coming months.
- PH factory slump deepens on weak sales, El Niño
Philippine manufacturing activity continues to weaken as weak domestic sales and El Niño weather effects weigh on factory output.
- Inflation could peak in November
Economists forecast Philippine inflation may hit its highest level of the year in November as persistent energy and food price pressures continue amid Middle East tensions and El Niño effects.
- Philippine October inflation hits 7.8%, a near 4-year high
Philippine inflation surged to 7.8% in October, the fastest pace since February 2023, driven by higher fuel, electricity, and transport costs pressuring consumer budgets.
Cross US–PH
- PSEi rebounds as US election results lift sentiment
The Philippine Stock Exchange index recovered 1.26 percent on Wednesday as investors returned to the market hunting for bargains, while the peso weakened to P63.535 against the US dollar.
- Peso strengthens; stocks retreat
Philippine stocks pulled back on November 4 as inflation concerns weighed on the market, while analysts cited expectations of faster price growth and elevated US Treasury yields as ongoing headwinds for the peso.
- US seeks stronger economic ties with PH to match defense alliance
US Ambassador Lee Lipton called for deeper economic cooperation with the Philippines to complement their security partnership, though no new trade agreements or tariff relief specifics were announced.
- BSP signals rate cuts still distant amid high inflation
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas indicated it would maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance as inflation remains elevated, signaling that interest rate cuts remain far off despite recent market pressures.
Terms to know
- Stock
- A tiny piece of ownership in a company. Buying a company's stock means you own a small part of that business.
- Stock market
- The overall marketplace where stocks are bought and sold. When we say 'the market' or show numbers like the S&P 500 or PSEi, we mean a snapshot of how stocks overall are doing that day.
- Interest rate
- The cost of borrowing money, or what you earn for saving it. When rates go up, loans get pricier, but savings can earn a bit more.
- Inflation (CPI)
- When everyday prices rise over time, so the same money buys less than before. CPI is the number used to measure it.
- Fed (Federal Reserve)
- The US central bank. It sets interest rates, which affect how expensive it is to borrow money, even here in the Philippines.
- BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)
- The Philippine central bank, PH's equivalent of the Fed.
- PSEi
- A single number that tracks how the Philippines' biggest company stocks are doing overall, like a report card for the PH stock market.
- bps (basis points)
- A small unit for measuring interest rate changes: 100 bps = 1%. Used because rate changes are usually tiny.
- 10-Yr Yield
- The interest rate the US government pays to borrow money long-term. When it rises, loans and mortgages tend to get pricier everywhere, not just in the US.
- USD/PHP
- How many pesos it takes to buy one US dollar.
- OFW remittances
- Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers, a key driver of peso demand.
Summaries, mover explanations, and forward-looking notes in this issue are AI-written from real market data and sourced news. Not financial advice.